The 2026 Swingometer
Create your own House forecast
Democrats
224
+9 vs today
House
—
—
Republicans
211
−9 vs today
held against the district's presidential vote
seat changing hands
★ the 218th seat
goes the other way on the random draw alone
H+ / T+
the district's 2024 presidential margin, not the generic ballot
Every seat carries a random error on top of the model — normal, 95% of it inside ±5 points, nothing outside.
Drawn once a page load and held, so you can move the settings without the seats moving underneath. Reload to redraw.
∗ marks a seat the draw decides: the model on its own gives it to the other party.
Incumbency
Candidate quality
Penalties · points against a party where the model judges the
candidate a drag
Battleground damper
off — uniform swing
◄ half the swing in the tightest seatsuniform ►
Drag the cut line round the wheel, use the presets, or focus the wheel
and use the arrow keys — arrows move it a tenth of a point, shift-arrows a whole point. The
padlock above the wheel holds the line where it is so you can tap round the districts
without nudging it; the presets still work while it is locked. Tap any block — or any row in the table below — to pin that district's
detail under the wheel; tapping a block never moves the line, only the line itself and the
empty space around the wheel do. Gold outlines mark seats held against the way the district
voted for president, crosshatching marks a seat changing hands, and the star sits on the
218th seat — the one that settles the majority at the ballot you have set.
Around the tipping point
| District | On the ballot | President | Cushion | Penalty | Swing | Expected marginExp. |
|---|
Seats across the whole range